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In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks and now a looming insolvency crisis in the financial sector, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are facing a trilemma. Unable to fight inflation and provide liquidity support simultaneously, the only solution is a severe recession – and thus a broader debt crisis.
2 Apr 2023
Policymakers in both the United States and China seem to have fully accepted, and even embraced, the logic of economic decoupling. But what exactly will decoupling entail, and what will its consequences be?
31 Mar 2023
National governments’ responses to the latest banking crisis confirm once again that some countries play by different rules than others. This double standard is bad for long-term planning within those countries and represents yet another threat to multilateralism
31 Mar 2023
Indian elites, official forecasters and international media have piled into the narrative that India’s economy is booming and positioning the country to become the great success story of the 21st century. But looking past the illusion created by headline GDP numbers, nothing could be further from the truth
31 Mar 2023
There are four reasons to worry that the latest banking crisis could be systemic. For many years, periodic bouts of quantitative easing have expanded bank balance sheets and stuffed them with more uninsured deposits, making the banks increasingly vulnerable to changes in monetary policy and financial conditions
31 Mar 2023
The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was met by an equally swift response from US regulators. But the crisis is far from over, and the nature of the authorities’ response introduces problems of its own
30 Mar 2023
Upticks in materials, capital goods, board diversification, and improved capital structures, focus on efficiency, emissions
28 Mar 2023
Following the latest banking crisis, monetary authorities should seriously consider how modern digital technologies could be used to avert such problems in the future. A central bank digital currency would both eliminate many barriers to financial transactions and end the risk of bank runs once and for all
27 Mar 2023
When a bank fails in the United States, questions about who is to blame are often directed at many different regulatory agencies, because the system is complex and hard for outsiders to understand. In the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the case for an overhaul could not be stronger
25 Mar 2023
As if the United States' foray into inefficient subsidization was not bad enough, regulators have also announced excessive eligibility criteria for the same companies that they claim to want to help. From childcare requirements to new corporate taxes, the US policy mix is becoming increasingly muddled
25 Mar 2023
If the US Federal Reserve raises its policy interest rate by as much as is necessary to rein in inflation, it will most likely further depress the market value of the long-duration securities parked on many banks' balance sheets. So be it
23 Mar 2023
Although Silicon Valley Bank was not deemed to be systemically important, its insolvency forced the US Federal Reserve to head off systemic contagion and exposed the inadequacy of the FDIC’s partial deposit insurance regime. The financial stability framework adopted after the 2008 crisis obviously needs another overhaul
21 Mar 2023
Rather than developing a robust understanding of the errors that led to the 2008 global financial crisis, politicians and the public demanded that supervisory authorities simply double down on regulation. So, that is what they did, and we are now seeing the results with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
21 Mar 2023
In 2018, US lawmakers loosened banking regulations on the spurious grounds that smaller banks do not pose systemic risks to the stability of the financial system. Unfortunately, everyone will have to relearn the hard-won lessons of past banking crises
19 Mar 2023