Treasury & Capital Markets /
Viewpoint
Tale of two Chinas – one booming, another stagnating
China’s economy is deeply unbalanced, with a battered real estate sector, weak consumption and stark regional disparities coexisting with dynamic tech and export sectors. But provided that political stability is maintained, China could continue to be a global powerhouse even as hundreds of millions of its citizens remain poor
Kenneth Rogoff
31 Oct 2026
Is China booming or stagnating? On one hand, its export industries – including electric vehicles, solar panels and virtually the entire range of manufactured goods – are the envy of the world, and its tech and AI industries are second only to the United States, with Europe trailing far behind. On the other hand, as I have written many times, China is now in the sixth year of a full-blown, Japan-style real estate crisis. Could China be booming and stagnating at the same time?
